鋼廠檢修減產(chǎn)增多,冬儲(chǔ)暫無(wú)意向,短期鋼價(jià)難漲？
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2024-11-27 21:46
編輯：達(dá)物
來(lái)源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}1v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊11月27日消息:【宏觀信息】1.【美國(guó)加征關(guān)稅可能只會(huì)使歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)下降0.2%】標(biāo)普全球評(píng)級(jí)在給投資者的一份報(bào)告中寫道，歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能能夠消化對(duì)美出口關(guān)稅提高的影響。特朗普此前警告說(shuō)，他將對(duì)進(jìn)口商品征收10%的關(guān)稅，這一政策將影響歐洲出口商，而美國(guó)是歐洲出口商最重要的市場(chǎng)。但根據(jù)標(biāo)普的估計(jì)，這種情況可能只會(huì)使歐元區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)下降0.2%，而德國(guó)受到的打擊比其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體更嚴(yán)重。【原料信息】1.焦炭：產(chǎn)地部分區(qū)域焦企出貨壓力增加，廠內(nèi)少量焦炭庫(kù)存堆積，隨著原料端焦煤價(jià)格持續(xù)回落，焦企降價(jià)后仍維持一定利潤(rùn)，開(kāi)工仍保持高位，焦炭供應(yīng)仍顯寬松，同時(shí)焦炭成本端支撐力度偏弱，市場(chǎng)仍有看降情緒。需求方面，多地進(jìn)入雨雪天氣，后期道路運(yùn)輸受限，鋼廠原料到貨或受到一定影響，部分鋼廠采購(gòu)積極性期有所提升，焦炭剛需尚可。港口方面，港口焦炭現(xiàn)貨暫穩(wěn)運(yùn)行，兩港庫(kù)存小幅下滑，市場(chǎng)交投氛圍一般。預(yù)計(jì)短期內(nèi)焦炭市場(chǎng)弱穩(wěn)運(yùn)行。2.鐵礦石：宏觀方面馬上進(jìn)入12月，對(duì)于月初的政治局會(huì)議市場(chǎng)期待性仍舊較高，按今年臨近會(huì)議的行情趨勢(shì)，再加上當(dāng)下人民幣出現(xiàn)貶值趨勢(shì)，對(duì)大宗商品價(jià)格上支撐增強(qiáng)。另外從產(chǎn)業(yè)端來(lái)看，當(dāng)前的時(shí)間節(jié)點(diǎn)臨近冬儲(chǔ)，各大鋼廠陸續(xù)出臺(tái)冬儲(chǔ)政策，鐵礦石的補(bǔ)庫(kù)行動(dòng)也同步展開(kāi)，剛需的韌性也支撐著礦價(jià)。短期來(lái)看，宏觀和產(chǎn)業(yè)層面所釋放的信號(hào)有所回暖，黑色系價(jià)格整體驅(qū)動(dòng)加強(qiáng)，鐵礦石期貨主力價(jià)格預(yù)計(jì)將在780-810運(yùn)行，普氏指數(shù)參考102-105美元。3.廢鋼：昨日至今，本地鋼廠主穩(wěn)個(gè)調(diào)運(yùn)行，漣鋼部分跌20?，F(xiàn)湖南市場(chǎng)主流成交價(jià)：重廢6厚2230-2280，鋼筋頭2240-2290，機(jī)生鐵2160-2210。湖南省共4家樣本鋼廠廢鋼到貨量為1.99萬(wàn)噸/天，較前一工作日增加0.32萬(wàn)噸。今期螺震蕩運(yùn)行，市場(chǎng)觀望情緒較濃，隨著周邊部分鋼企的小幅下調(diào)，省內(nèi)個(gè)別到貨較多的鋼企也隨之窄幅調(diào)整。目前來(lái)看省內(nèi)需求較好，暫無(wú)大跌風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，更多的關(guān)注后續(xù)的兩個(gè)重要會(huì)議。故預(yù)計(jì)短期本地廢鋼主穩(wěn)個(gè)調(diào)運(yùn)行。【鋼廠調(diào)價(jià)】：1.11月27日漣鋼建材出廠價(jià)格下調(diào)20元（噸價(jià)，下同）,現(xiàn)HRB400E材質(zhì)Φ18mm螺紋鋼指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3460元/噸,上述價(jià)格自2024年11月27日起執(zhí)行。2.11月27日湘鋼建材出廠價(jià)格平穩(wěn)（噸價(jià)，下同）,1、HRB400E材質(zhì)18mm螺紋鋼出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3420元/噸,2、HRB400E材質(zhì)8-10mm盤螺出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3510元/噸,3、HPB300材質(zhì)8-10mm高線出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3620元/噸,上述價(jià)格自2024年11月27日起執(zhí)行。 【市場(chǎng)價(jià)格變化】： 表1 湖南市場(chǎng)建材的價(jià)格 單位（元/噸）目前本周湖南地區(qū)現(xiàn)貨市價(jià)震蕩偏弱，跌幅10-30，今長(zhǎng)沙萍鋼螺紋基價(jià)3370元/噸較周一跌30，市場(chǎng)成交不暢，據(jù)了解近幾日商家多數(shù)出貨量在100-300噸，部分經(jīng)銷商甚至只有幾十噸，據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)今長(zhǎng)沙十家大戶出貨6150噸，較上一日縮量，現(xiàn)市場(chǎng)缺乏利好，市場(chǎng)多關(guān)注12月會(huì)議，原料端尚有支撐，預(yù)計(jì)短期湖南建材市價(jià)窄幅震蕩?！臼袌?chǎng)庫(kù)存變化】：表2 長(zhǎng)沙建材市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存變化匯總（單位：萬(wàn)噸）今現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)成交不佳，XG日產(chǎn)300噸，LG日產(chǎn)0.28萬(wàn)噸，鋼廠產(chǎn)能利用率小幅下調(diào)，鋼廠廠庫(kù)不大，市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存有小幅增加，長(zhǎng)沙建材社會(huì)庫(kù)存17.23萬(wàn)噸，較上周增加0.39萬(wàn)噸，其中螺紋鋼庫(kù)存10.75萬(wàn)噸，盤線6.48萬(wàn)噸；衡陽(yáng)1萬(wàn)噸增0.1萬(wàn)噸，婁底3.6萬(wàn)噸增0.6萬(wàn)噸，懷化1.6萬(wàn)噸減0.6萬(wàn)噸，湘潭0.48萬(wàn)噸減0.1萬(wàn)噸，武漢建材社會(huì)庫(kù)存16.83萬(wàn)噸，較上周增加0.68萬(wàn)噸，其中螺紋鋼庫(kù)存12.04萬(wàn)噸，盤線4.79萬(wàn)噸。目前來(lái)看，下游需求有限，市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存仍會(huì)增加。【湖南地區(qū)后期預(yù)測(cè)】：目前商家多數(shù)未考慮冬儲(chǔ)之事，多數(shù)商家?guī)齑娌桓撸瑢?duì)今年冬儲(chǔ)意向很低，現(xiàn)商家操作謹(jǐn)慎出貨為主，廠家多數(shù)檢修減產(chǎn)，廠內(nèi)庫(kù)存偏低，現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)下游需求減少，成交受限，產(chǎn)業(yè)自身矛盾不大，政策預(yù)期不強(qiáng)，預(yù)計(jì)短期市場(chǎng)依舊偏弱，幅度10-50。
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